National Hurricane Center saw improved forecast accuracy during 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
View from navigator's station aboard a NOAA hurricane hunter plane in the eye of Hurricane Milton. Taken approximately 10 a.m. on October 9, 2024. Lieutenant Commander Andrew Utama, NOAA Corps. (Image credit: NOAA plane in the eye of Milton. 10/9/24.)
Accurate forecasts and early warnings from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) — a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) — are vital to safeguarding communities that are in the paths of hurricanes and tropical storms.
As we kick off the new year, now is the perfect time to look back on how NOAA’s newest hurricane model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), advanced the accuracy of hurricane forecasts and supported community preparedness actions during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
HAFS was jointly created by NOAA's National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory and NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies. offsite link After five years of development, HAFS made its first operational forecast in June 2023 and was upgraded in July 2024.
Better predictions, better preparedness
HAFS improves the ability to forecast a hurricane or tropical storm’s intensity as measured by sustained wind speeds. The model also improves forecasters’ ability to anticipate the path of a storm, and can do so earlier than in previous Atlantic hurricane seasons. The upgraded model demonstrated improved forecast accuracy when tested over a three-year period, with 8% better predictions for track, and 10% better predictions for intensity, especially at longer forecast lead times — with overall improvements of four to five days.
During the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, HAFS provided more accurate predictions than the previous model. When HAFS was used in combination with other forecast models, the forecasts for intensity were improved by 2–3% during the 12–48 hour forecast time period.
HAFS also successfully predicted the rapid intensification for hurricanes Helene and Milton well in advance, giving communities more time than usual to prepare. “Rapid intensification” is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24-hour period.
‘Nesting’ for knowledge: New technology yields more accuracy
High-resolution forecasts from HAFS are made possible by unique technology called storm-following nests. Much like a magnifying glass, the nest gives NHC forecasters a simulated view of the storm’s structure, allowing them to see more accurate details of the storm’s eyewall, clouds, rain bands, wind fields and more.
The enhanced resolution offers more accurate prediction of the storm’s location, timing and associated hazards, such as wind and extreme rainfall. In future versions of HAFS, multiple storm-following nests will be used to produce high-definition forecasts for several hurricanes simultaneously.
From prediction to planning: HAFs forecasts contribute to more effective emergency response
HAFS advancements help NHC forecasters to issue more accurate hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. These forecasts support emergency management professionals, community leaders and the public, helping them to make better-informed decisions in the face of severe weather.
Thanks to this new model, its increased lead times for critical information are resulting in better hazard communication and faster, more effective responses — potentially reducing hurricane impacts and protecting lives and property.
NOAA will continue to improve HAFS, producing the best possible hurricane forecast guidance.
